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Judul Impact of Climate Change on River Flows in the Black Volta River
Penulis Sawai N, Kobayashi K, Apip, Takara K, Ishikawa H, Yokomatsu M, Samaddar S, Juati AN and Berisavljevic GK
Jenis Terbitan JURNAL
Nama Terbitan Disaster Research
Volume/No/Halaman   4/0/
Kota Penerbit
Abstrak This paper assess the impact of climate change in the Black Volta River by using output from the Atmospheric General Circulation Model 20 km resolution (hereinafter AGCM20) by the Japanese Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute.The Black Volta River is a major tributary of the Volta River. It flows mainly in Burkina Faso and Ghana in West Africa. The basin covers 142,056 km2 and belongs to the semi-arid tropical climate. Before applying AGCM20 output to a rainfall-runoff model, the performance of the AGCM20 rainfall is investigated by comparing with the observed rainfall in the Black Volta basin. Then, in order to assess the possible impact of rainfall change on river flows, the kinematic wave model with considering the saturated and unsaturated sub-surface soil zones was performed. The rainfall analysis shows that, the correlation coefficient of the monthly rainfall between the observed rainfall and AGCM20 for the present climate (1979-2004) is 0.977. The analysis also shows that AGCM20 overestimates precipitation during the rainy season and underestimates the dry season for the present climate. The analysis of the AGCM20 output show the precipitation pattern change in the future (2075-2099). Precipitation is expected to increase by 3 persen, while evaporation by 5 persen and transpiration by 8 persen in the future. Also, daily maximum rainfall is expected to be 20 mm (60 persen) higher. Thus, the future climate in this region is expected to be severer. The rainfall-runoff simulation is successfully calibrated at the Bamboi discharge gauging station in the Black Volta from June 2000 to December 2000 with 0.72 of the Nash-Sutcliff model coefficiency index. The model is applied with AGCM20 ouputs for the present climate (1979-2004) and the future climate (2075-2099). The results indicate that the future discharge will decrease from January to July at the rate of the maximum of 50 persen and increase from August to December at the rate of the maximum of 20 persen in the future. Therefore, the comprehensive planning for both floods and droughts are urgent in this region

 

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